1) ES opened with sellers in control The trade plan called for me to look for trades in the direction of control at the middle to back of the zone on first touch. Placing a short near 1649.50 provided excellent trade location for a possible 5 point trade. If your familiar with my blog my highest odds trade is to target 2 points and close the trade. I will post the up to date results of that model shortly. Either way, it would be hard to lose money with that trade placement with a reasonable stop.
2) I pointed out at 9am that while buyers had control if we closed above 1649.50 on the five minute that I was expecting choppy conditions with a balanced profile. Importantly I said i was not taking trades in teh middle which at the time was the WHITE ZONE. Just the same, closing below the WHITE ZONE put sellers back in control and let you know to stand down from a counter trade for less aggressive traders. When we reached 1640 I pointed out that we had an extreme in negative tick reading. That this often indicated bottoms-at least near term are probable. Also noted I would be looking for divergence for a possible long. Thats exactly what we got at 10:10 central time for a beautiful rotation up to the back of the 1643.50-1645.50 S/R Zone. (3) A potential 7.5 pt trade.
The rotation up was capped at the first part of NY lunch & ES chopped around for 30 minutes before responsive sellers pushed down from 1645.50 down to 1640. (4)On the second push down toward 1640 we had a positive tick divergence & a higher low. This set us up for a strong move up and Responsive buyers pushed ES all the way up to the 1651.50-1653.560 Resistance Zone. (5) Again, I cautioned on twitter that we had seen a higher low and significant tick readings plus great tick divergence. These were all clues that the low of the day was in. This is part of the art of trading, see the clues that the game had changed. In addition I sent a message to my coaching clients & later on twitter that I was in capital conservation mode. That simply means I am cutting position size and only taking the best set ups. I had a great morning and was not going to hand it back to the market.
Buyers stayed in control the balance of the afternoon and pushes into the WHITE ZONE could be bought for rotations higher. Only in the last 20 minutes did the rotations fail. Again, 90% of the time I take no trades in the last hour. Its just too hard to call on a daily basis.
On a coaching note. Today was not easy, the open was whippy and fast. That is why discipline is key. If you did not have a targeted exit you profit could have come & gone quickly. Not having and respecting your stops could have run you over on the 2nd break of the WHITE ZONE to the down side. Second and third touches into a zone carried greater risk. I hammer focusing on the highest odds trades because its critical to the learning process of a trader that you be positively reinforced with consistency in profits. If losses start to compile, there is no way to stay in a learning mode. Its just a fight for survival.
I hope all did well, tomorrow is a new opportunity to repeat what you did well today and improve what was poorly executed. Its an awesome thing that we get to start over every day.
NOTE: Interested in learning how to become a consistently profitable trader? I have an introduction to one to one coaching package that offers 3 one hour sessions for only $200.(NORMALLY $125/HR) Its a great deal. You can contact me at TRADENPERFORM@GMAIL.COM to set up a 15 min chat on skype to see if we match. The TESTIMONIALS tab is at the top of the page.