ES VIDEO TRADE REVIEW 06-28-2013

YOU CAN FIND THE LINKS TO TODAY'S VIDEO TRADE REVIEW BELOW THE PRE & POST MARKET IMAGES.

http://www.screencast.com/users/TRADENPERFORM/folders/Snagit/media/da2e9fff-d449-4fb3-9bdc-04faeadc0848


Excellence is an art won by training and habituation. We do not act rightly because we have virtue or excellence, but we rather have those because we have acted rightly. We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act but a habit.

ARISTOTLE

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

TRADE REVIEW FOR 06-27-2013

Apologies,  I am normally quite diligent with my trade reviews. A family illness prevented me from todays review.  The main concept is to focus of the first touch of each zone as the first touch into the zone has the highest odds of a tradeable rotation higher.  If you have any questions feel free to contact me at TRADENPERFORM@GMAIL.COM

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES VIDEO TRADE REVIEW 06-26-2013

Tonight I will do another video review of the market.  The feedback has been positive.   Remember,  the trade plan is only a portion of what a professional trader uses to stack chips.  I use multiple strategies, time frames & risk profiles to make everything come together.   I work very hard on the mental side of the game. If you would like to learn to make your own levels & develop the confidence to trade like a pro you may want to consider looking into my coaching services.  I charge a very reasonable $200 for the 1st three sessions & $125 an hour after that.   Both rates are very low, too low, and I will be raising them over time as I have in the past.  Most of all I hope these trade reviews show you a) you can trade with a high level of confidence if you know how to find good trade location & understand the odds of that trade working & b) that you can make a considerable amount of money day trading IF you have both the mental game, understanding of market structure & the discipline to let the market come to you.   Hope everyone banked today.  

PART 1:  http:/ screencast.com/t/sxjdPxPbBDI
PART 2:  http://screencast.com/t/8bzYDntL
PART 3:  http://screencast.com/t/q1Abppd1

“Be like water making its way through cracks. Do not be assertive, but adjust to the object, and you shall find a way around or through it. If nothing within you stays rigid, outward things will disclose themselves. Empty your mind, be formless. Shapeless, like water. If you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle and it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.”

MARCH 11, 2013 AT 10:26 PM

- Bruce Lee

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-25-2013

I will be doing tonight's ES Review via video tonight as well.  I received a great deal of positive feedback.  I hope everyone did well.  I am testing different type of screen capture software,  unfortunately have not figured out how to use it yet so this will be in 3 parts tonight.  Hope everyone banked$$ today.  Links are below chart.   Remember,  all you need is one high odds trade to succeed.  Wash rinse repeat. 

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” 

― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

http://screencast.com/t/efGsfd4AZNE2

http://screencast.com/t/phQMIsCnUv

http://screencast.com/t/en6kKjnEhN


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES VIDEO TRADE REVIEW FOR 06-24-2013

Today I am trying something a bit different.  I am doing the trade review on video.  Depending on the response I may do more trade reviews in this manner.   I had to break it into 3 parts.   Would appreciate any feedback.  Links can be found below the charts.  

Video Links:  

Part 1:  http://screencast.com/t/KTYA4FMmc
Part 2: http://screencast.com/t/LOMdVPuH5To
Part 3: http://screencast.com/t/u50rsHSS

Anyone can trade like a pro.   If you would liked to be coached on how to move from churning your account or losing to making money feel free to contact me.   Good luck to all.  I hope everyone made $$ today.  

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW FOR 06-21-2013

ES opened in the 1591.75-93.75 WHITE ZONE.  The WHITE ZONE has a very special purpose as it sets up my highest odds trade and gives me an edge right off the open.  Since we opened below 1593.75 ( the top of the WHITE ZONE) the trade was to the short side.  Two points was easily attained & 4 points were possible prior to the second test of the zone.  

One must understand the having a high odds trade can make or break a career. Do the math using your own trading size,  if you hit 1 trade a day for 2 points every day, how long would it take you to build your account.    The WHITE ZONE accomplishes this task for me and then some.  Remember,  you only need one good trade.

In my approach to the markets, the idea is pretty strait forward.  The 1st touch of a zone.  Each subsequent touch reduces the odds of a successful counter rotation.  That does not mean you can not get it; 2nd touches are very tradeable.  The point is however,  to focus on the highest odds trades.  Day trading is about attacking when your opponent is in the weakest condition to defend and to take what is most easily given.  Two points imho is very easily given and where I focus the majority of my trades.

Once buyers were unable to push through the WHITE ZONE,  sellers grabbed control & would probably maintain control until the market became fairly extended towards Initial Support or beyond.

Now you as a trader have 2 lines of thinking you can follow.  1) I am going to look to trade both sides meaning I am going to take longs and shorts.  This is the most aggressive stance and can burn inexperienced or inflexible traders but can be very rewarding for traders who can remain fluid. 2) Recognize that your not that fluid and decide your only going to trade in direction of control until such time as we have a major reversal at an important point like Initial support or we have a major tick divergence or, as was the case Friday we hit a tick extreme of +1000 or more.

I actually prefer trading in the direction of control.  It often gives me the least amount of stress & the quickest rewards.  If you look at each zone as it was tested for the first time while moving up from a lower zone.  Almost every touch yielded 2+ points to the short side. A close examination of the zones while we were moving lower reveals that many did not get a rotation up on first touch while the first touch of each zone on the way back up did yield a successful rotation lower.  

If you want to be a successful day trader you have to know who has control and which time is the right time to challenge that control.  You challenge when the market is stretched,  when there is tick extreme or tick divergence.  Otherwise,  just trade with control.

This whole game is a crap shoot,  you have to put the odds in your favor if your going to win.

If you would like to learn more about trading like a pro & winning consistently, you can contact me at Tradenperform@gmail.com




Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW FOR 06/20/2013

ES had a gap and go.  As I am still having a great deal of my time taken by a family members illness I am going over the major points of the day.

THE WHITE ZONE WAS 1609.50-1612.  The WHITE ZONE determines who has control; buyers above & sellers below.  The questions was not did sellers have actual control,  we had a huge gap down, there was clearly highly motivated sellers.  The question was which way to lean,  Unless buyers could push above 1612, sellers had the upper hand.   This tells you the down side rotations should be stronger than upside rotations & if your going to get long,  choose wisely and don't hang around too long.

If you will look at each zone,  the first push down into a zone provided a nice rotation up at almost every level even though sellers had control,  conversely,  pushes up were met with excellent shorting opportunities; particularly with the first touch of either side of the zone (front & back)

I pointed out that if we got tick divergence at about 9.30 am central time  that it would be a good set up.  At 940 am  ES reversed on tick divergence for a 6 point rotation higher.  Tick divergence again occurred right at the front of the 1190.50-1592.50 for a 10 point rotation up.

When the market is so stretched you have to look for opportunities for reversals.  

1601-1603 ZONE was big and when buyers were unable to push above the fate was sealed.

I pointed out that on the push up to the 1601-1603 zone I was selling in the money Binary Calls for downside exposure.  I was able to cover the calls for 5 bucks and they expired worthless.   Creativity and limiting risk is a big part of being a successful trader.  You have to look at all the ways you can ring the registrar within your frame work.

Finally I pointed out repeatedly through the coarse of the day,  can you imagine a big reversal?  The point isnt that I knew there would be a reversal.  I did not.  The point was I am open to the potability.   Mental flexibility is key.  You have to be able to imagine the possibilities and still be comfortable not knowing what will happen.

I hope that helps some traders out there.  Becoming a true pro requires a multi dimensional approach with discipline and  flexibility to see both sides of an opportunity.

Great crazy day.  So many good opportunities.  Hope everyone banked.  I know my coaching clients did well and that is very satisfying.

Goodnight.  More fun tomorrow.


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06/19/2013

ES had quite the day, & we all knew it was coming.  The highest odds trade of the day took place out of the gate.  The WHITE ZONE of 1644-1646 determines who has control.  Above buyers have control, below sellers have control.   The open was in the middle of the zone and provided excellent trade location. yielding a potential 5 point + trade.

That trade finished me for the day.   I simply do not like to get involved  in the chop action combined with the violent moves post FOMC.  The balance of the day I used binary options so i could control my losses very carefully.  

The easiest trade was to the short side,  and while it seems obvious now it was not so obvious in the early going.  Knowing the bias and control gave a two fold edge.  1) It let me know (if) I took a counter trend long in needed to be fast.  2) That the short side set up would give me bigger potential profits.  Looking at the chart you will see the back of the zones combined with a  good rotation up payed very nice dividends.

I think the biggest takeaway of the day is that the best trade may have been no trade.  Markets like this look so big.  Like so much money is there for the taking.  Its an allusion.  ES was moving in 2-4 point bursts.  Stops got run over.   I highly doubt many banked coin this afternoon that were not positioned prior to FOMC.  It was simply so hard.   If you took the highest odds trade and then went home; well done.  If you lost make notes of the errors and make it a focus to only take the highest odds trades tomorrow and every day moving forward.

Good night.  Tomorrow more fun.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06/18/2013

I am going to cover some very specific points for today's review.




1) ES opened into the 1632-1634 WHITE ZONE. This generated the first long opportunity of the day. The WHITE ZONE is my highest odds trade and generated 2+ points out of the gate and established firmly that buyers are in control. This means that buyers will have the edge until we hit INITIAL RESISTANCE. I expect responsive sellers at INITIAL RESISTANCE & while that did not happen today we did have a significant pause at that zone. For less aggressive traders its always a good idea to take off a long at Initial Resistance if you had not already done so.

2) While buyers maintained control through out the day the middle to back of the zones provided excellent location for aggressive traders to take quick shorts. Every zone provided at least a 2 point rotation lower from the middle to the back of the zone. It goes without saying that you should always have a stop in place. One that is reasonable to allow the trade to succeed while still providing sufficient protection against significant damage to your trading account.

3) Take away: Some of the best trades in the market are quick ones. The WHITE ZONE requires speed and discipline If you wait to see that it is right you will miss it most days. Its an uncomfortable trade and exactly the reason that it is so successful for me.

Trend days are hard. If you do not get in early, It is often hard to find a good entry. Do not beat yourself up. While we have had several trend days lately the vast majority of days are range days with extensions.


It take s dedication and discipline just to admit that the best and easiest trades are gone for the day. Traders often feel left out or cheated. Just tell your self there is more to learn and another GOOD opportunity down the road. If you stick to your highest odds trades you will not have to trade for free tomorrow because of the loss you took on a low odds trade.


Its all about stacking chips folks.



Good to be back. I love the markets. See all of you tomorrow.

Oh, one last note. FED DAYS ARE HARD. I CUT SIZE, TAKE FEWER TRADES AND SOMETIMES DO NOTHING AT ALL. LEVELS DO NOT MATTER WHEN THE HERD IS ON A NEWS TEAR. SOMETIMES ITS BEST TO STAY AWAY. ALSO FRIDAY QUAD WITCHING WHICH COULD MAKE THURSDAY VERY HARD--MANY POSITIONS THAT EXPIRE FRIDAY WILL BE SQUARED THURSDAY. FIRST HOUR OF FRIDAY COULD ALSO PROBE MORE CHALLENGING THAN NORMAL. NOW THAT YOU KNOW, MAKE THE BEST DECISION FOR YOU.



GOOD NIGHT.


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

QUICK NOTE

The last few weeks have been a bit difficult and required me to be away from the trade desk. I apologize for the lack of postings. They will resume tonight.

Performance update of the first high odds trade of the day since inception of blog 04/19/2013

this spread sheet features the 1st trade of the day into the WHITE ZONE.  Please feel free to shoot me any questions you may have.   TRADENPERFORM@GMAIL.COM

Link to full spread sheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap5hOyO4ONQLdEh4blB3aU81Smk0a1VBVFZZRnVqb2c&usp=sharing




TRADE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND BASED ON TRADING RULES AND ZONES POSTED PRIOR TO OPEN.  A TRADE IS COUNTED ONLY IF THERE WOULD BE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION THAT A LIMIT ORDER WOULD BE FILLED AT THE LIMIT.  DO NOT FOLLOW ANYONE BLINDLY. THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES S/R TRADE ZONES FOR 06-06-13

Today's trade plan is to focus on trade entry at the zones. Highest odds location is at the middle to back of the zone on first touch. I will be looking for signs of sellers over reaching in the form of tick divergence & extreme tick readings. We are down multiple days in a row so I am cautious not to get over aggressive on the down side. Markets move in two directions. Trade smart. trade location itself is an edge.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-05-2013

In tonights review lets look at a few basics I trade by:
1) Focus is in 2 areas

A) who has control-buyers or sellers. The WHITE LINE helps determine this.  Generally speaking, buyers have control above & sellers below.

If you are a very aggressive trader you can contra trade both sides of the WHITE ZONE.  If you are less aggressive you want to trade in the direction of control. 

B)  The whole zone gives on an edge in trade placement The front of the zone is the most aggressive, the back of the zone is least aggressive.  Only you can determine your risk tolerance.  Where ever I enter a trade I assume my stop will need to be behind the zone.  Therefore,  you must plan accordingly.  

I do not have a stop I recommend;  though I do recommend using a stop.  A stop has 2 meet 2 criteria, a-- it has to be one that will let me protect my account while b) giving me the best chance of staying in the trade the majority of the time.  If you can only tolerate a 2 tick stop & the instrument you trade has a 2.5 point rotation at its least volatile point, you probably have a problem. 

These are the backbones of my trading.   

Sometimes I am taking trades at the front of the zone & sometimes I am taking trades middle to back.  I always prefer middle to back if for no other reason than I can use a smaller stop.  

For tonight's review,  I would encourage you to look at the back of the zones and look at what type of stop would have kept you in the majority of the rotations back up.  I could tell you but you will learn more by measuring yourself.   Lots of trades here.  High odds trades.  

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-04-13

Tonight there will be no detailed trade review.  I have a family emergency that is demanding my attention.  Hopefully I  will be able to return to the full review soon.  So A few concepts to guide you through the chart.

WHITE ZONE-- determines who has control-buyers above & sellers below.  I tend to focus on the trade that goes with control until initial resistance or support is hit.  At that point I am will to look at both sides of the market.

First Touch.  The first touch of a zone has the highest odds of a counter rotation. Second and third touches require tick divergence or some other type of evidence that its a reasonable risk reward to take the trade. 

I generally do not trade the last hour unless i am already in a position going into the last hour. 

I focus on only the highest odds trades.  My goal is simply to show that consistent high odds trading can be accomplished.  

I hope everyone had a great day.  If you did not,  learn from your mistakes and improve tomorrow.  This can be done.  

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-03-2013

ES opened up at 1633.  Right into the WHITE ZONE OF 1632-1634. When we open in the WHITE ZONE it is always a challenge.  The way I handle it is to look at the prior days close.  If we closed lower prior session and we gap up into-but not above the WHITE ZONE.  I look to short the WHITE ZONE.  Had we opened above the WHITE ZONE. I would have assumed buyers are in control  and looked to get long the first touch into the WHITE ZONE.  This is not a mechanical system,  the location simply gives you an edge in placing a trade.  The middle of the WHITE ZONE provided excellent trade location & Responsive Sellers were able to push ES down to Initial Support. This, once again, easily garnered 2+ points per contract. Up to 5.5 points were available.  

When ES trades into Initial Support I expect Responsive Buyers to respond the first time & that's exactly what happened.  A long trade placed at the middle to the back of the 1628.50 to 1626.50 easily reached a 2 point target & potentially 5+ points.  Responsive sellers quickly responded and pushed back down to Initial Support again.    Responsive Buyers stepped back in once again from the back of Initial Support and  were able to push all the way up to the back of the 1632-1634 WHITE ZONE & a little above.  When I see quick moves through the WHITE ZONE it is a sign of indecision on behalf of market participants and a sign for me to back off entering new trades.  I commented on twitter that the easy money had been made.  That caution was well placed as sellers came back in and pushed back down to Initial Support.  If this sounds confusing, try trading it.  Sometimes its best just to watch.   The third time into a zone can be challenging and even though there was a rotation back up it was sloppy.  After 20 min of indecision sellers were finally able to break Initial Support & push down into Strong  Support Zone of 11619-1621.  

Strong support is just that and responsive buyers stepped in and it was the low of the day.  The push back to Initial Support occurred over lunch and was a chop fest.  Lunch is an incredibly difficult time to find consistency and this bis is all about consistency.   I want no part of chop.  After working on it for about two hours ES finally worked its way back above Initial Support & into the WHITE ZONE going into the last hour.   I warned going into the last hour the if buyers could push above and close a five minute bar above the 1632-1634 zone buyers would be in control & we would have the setting for a short squeeze.  I warn almost daily; contra trades in the final hour are dangerous.  No better example than today and Friday.  Its the trades that you don't take that can be real life savers.  

As discussed, we did experience the short squeeze and buyers pushed all the way to 1638.50 resistance point.   The trade plan pretty much nailed the highs and lows for the day.  More importantly,  focusing on shorts below the WHITE ZONE & longs above really paid dividends today. Hope everyone did well.  Look forward to doing it again tomorrow.  

Success is the result of perfection, hard work, learning from failure, loyalty, and persistence.
Colin Powell 

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

The spreadsheet below highlights the first trade of the day.  Usually this is the first touch of the WHITE ZONE.  The purpose of the spread sheet is to demonstrate that all you need is one good trade to build an account. You don't have to go through boom bust cycles.  Consistency is achievable. 

 Link to full spread sheet.   https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap5hOyO4ONQLdEh4blB3aU81Smk0a1VBVFZZRnVqb2c&usp=sharing

If you would like to learn how to trade with the consistency and accuracy of  a professional;  click on the COACHING tab at the top of the page. There is a great discount on the first 3 one to one sessions.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW FOR 05-31-2013

Friday was simply a fantastic trading day.  The morning session was full of opportunity & the close was breathtaking.  There was so much going on that I am simply going to cover the key areas in today's review.  

ES opened above the WHITE ZONE placing buyers in control.  When we open above the WHITE ZONE my least aggressive strategy calls for going long the top of the WHITE ZONE on first touch & targeting an exit at 2 points.  Its a very high odds trade & dramatically highlights that all you need to build an account is 1 high odds trade  Wash rinse repeat.  For traders who left a trailer there was a potential 6 points of profit as responsive buyers pushed ES to Initial Resistance of 1652.50-1654.550.  

I expect responsive sellers at Initial Resistance.  Once Initial Resistance zone is hit,  it is a good idea to consider closing out any remaining longs.  I tweeted that I would need supporting evidence to take any longs after we hit Initial Resistance.  For very aggressive traders, Initial Resistance is often a good location to initiate shorts as I expect a larger than normal rotation out of Initial Resistance  That is exactly what occurred as Responsive Sellers pushed ES back toward the WHITE ZONE fora potential 6+ point trades on the short side.   

Responsive buyers stepped back in again just in-front of the second test of the WHITE ZONE and pushed ES back up to INITIAL RESISTANCE & through to the back of the 1656-1658 resistance zone; where Responsive Sellers stepped in again.  The back of the zone market the high of the day.  The sellers were able to push ES back down & through Initial Resistance and we into balance/chop over NY lunch.   NY Lunch is one of the hardest times of day to be consistent in.  I generally avoid opening positions this time of day.  

My entire focus is on taking only the highest odds trades and leaving everything else alone.   I enjoy the markets by my sole purpose here is to take money out of the market.  You dont get paid more because the trade is harder.  Actually, its usually the inverse.  

After chopping in a tight range for two hours sellers finally prevailed and pushed ES down into the WHITE ZONE for the second test of the day. For those who follow my blog you know that I emphasize the the 1st test is the highest odds of providing a tradeable counter rotation & that I need supporting evidence to take the trade.  The sharp move through the WHITE ZONE on the second test is exactly why I look for additional evidence before taking a second push into a zone. in this case,  there was no meaningful rotation higher.   I noted on twitter heading towards the last hour that sellers were now in control & that contra trades are not something i am interested in in this period of the day.   Why?  because I hate getting run over, as many who tried to pick a low did.  One of the principals of my trading philosophy is that a rule that keeps me out of a losing trade is as valuable as a rule that gets me into a winning trade.  Perhaps more valuable.  

The push back up into the back of the WHITE ZONE after we closed below was a fantastic risk reward location for a push to the downside.  I noted on twitter that bonds were exploding to the upside going into the top of the hour.  I also noted that even though we were at  Initial Support I do not take contra trades last hour, low of the day, below the White Zone etc.  The trade out if Initial Support actually paid nicely but it was paramount to juggling grenades   It can be done but the misses can be painful!. To sum up the last hour, strait down.  Once we closed below the WHITE ZONE the market peeled off 17 points to the down side in an hour.  

Takeaways.  1)  LOCATION MATTERS!  2) don't get ahead of the market mentally, 1 step at a time  3)  Knowing who has control is a HUGE EDGE.   Just knowing not to take the contra trade for the average trader can save your trading account!  3)  You dont have to figure out every move, YOU ONLY NEED ONE OR TWO HIGH ODDS TRADES to build a trading career. 4) Last hour moves like today are rare.  If you made alot of money in the last hour enjoy, but don't get drunk.  the last hour is usually a no win affair for the average trader. Be grateful for the payday but don't try to reproduce it everyday, stick with the high odds play.  5) The WHITE ZONE makes trading so much easier from a mental perspective & makes shifting perspectives from long focus to short focus strait forward.  

I hope everyone crushed it.  I will have the first trade performance spread sheet since inception of the blog up today.  It is positive 51 POINTS PER CONTRACT since April 19th (date blog started)  with no one trade accounting for more than 2 points in gains & no more than 3 points in losses.  That is  what focus on high odds trades can do for a trader.  I will post shortly.  

If you would like to learn how to trade with the consistency and accuracy of  a professional click on the COACHING tab at the top of the page. There is a great discount on the first 3 one to one sessions.

Next week should be awesome   Really looking forward to it! 


We all have dreams. But in order to make dreams come into reality, it takes an awful lot of determination, dedication, self-discipline, and effort.
Jesse Owens 



Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.