ES TRADE REVIEW 06/19/2013

ES had quite the day, & we all knew it was coming.  The highest odds trade of the day took place out of the gate.  The WHITE ZONE of 1644-1646 determines who has control.  Above buyers have control, below sellers have control.   The open was in the middle of the zone and provided excellent trade location. yielding a potential 5 point + trade.

That trade finished me for the day.   I simply do not like to get involved  in the chop action combined with the violent moves post FOMC.  The balance of the day I used binary options so i could control my losses very carefully.  

The easiest trade was to the short side,  and while it seems obvious now it was not so obvious in the early going.  Knowing the bias and control gave a two fold edge.  1) It let me know (if) I took a counter trend long in needed to be fast.  2) That the short side set up would give me bigger potential profits.  Looking at the chart you will see the back of the zones combined with a  good rotation up payed very nice dividends.

I think the biggest takeaway of the day is that the best trade may have been no trade.  Markets like this look so big.  Like so much money is there for the taking.  Its an allusion.  ES was moving in 2-4 point bursts.  Stops got run over.   I highly doubt many banked coin this afternoon that were not positioned prior to FOMC.  It was simply so hard.   If you took the highest odds trade and then went home; well done.  If you lost make notes of the errors and make it a focus to only take the highest odds trades tomorrow and every day moving forward.

Good night.  Tomorrow more fun.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06/18/2013

I am going to cover some very specific points for today's review.




1) ES opened into the 1632-1634 WHITE ZONE. This generated the first long opportunity of the day. The WHITE ZONE is my highest odds trade and generated 2+ points out of the gate and established firmly that buyers are in control. This means that buyers will have the edge until we hit INITIAL RESISTANCE. I expect responsive sellers at INITIAL RESISTANCE & while that did not happen today we did have a significant pause at that zone. For less aggressive traders its always a good idea to take off a long at Initial Resistance if you had not already done so.

2) While buyers maintained control through out the day the middle to back of the zones provided excellent location for aggressive traders to take quick shorts. Every zone provided at least a 2 point rotation lower from the middle to the back of the zone. It goes without saying that you should always have a stop in place. One that is reasonable to allow the trade to succeed while still providing sufficient protection against significant damage to your trading account.

3) Take away: Some of the best trades in the market are quick ones. The WHITE ZONE requires speed and discipline If you wait to see that it is right you will miss it most days. Its an uncomfortable trade and exactly the reason that it is so successful for me.

Trend days are hard. If you do not get in early, It is often hard to find a good entry. Do not beat yourself up. While we have had several trend days lately the vast majority of days are range days with extensions.


It take s dedication and discipline just to admit that the best and easiest trades are gone for the day. Traders often feel left out or cheated. Just tell your self there is more to learn and another GOOD opportunity down the road. If you stick to your highest odds trades you will not have to trade for free tomorrow because of the loss you took on a low odds trade.


Its all about stacking chips folks.



Good to be back. I love the markets. See all of you tomorrow.

Oh, one last note. FED DAYS ARE HARD. I CUT SIZE, TAKE FEWER TRADES AND SOMETIMES DO NOTHING AT ALL. LEVELS DO NOT MATTER WHEN THE HERD IS ON A NEWS TEAR. SOMETIMES ITS BEST TO STAY AWAY. ALSO FRIDAY QUAD WITCHING WHICH COULD MAKE THURSDAY VERY HARD--MANY POSITIONS THAT EXPIRE FRIDAY WILL BE SQUARED THURSDAY. FIRST HOUR OF FRIDAY COULD ALSO PROBE MORE CHALLENGING THAN NORMAL. NOW THAT YOU KNOW, MAKE THE BEST DECISION FOR YOU.



GOOD NIGHT.


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

QUICK NOTE

The last few weeks have been a bit difficult and required me to be away from the trade desk. I apologize for the lack of postings. They will resume tonight.

Performance update of the first high odds trade of the day since inception of blog 04/19/2013

this spread sheet features the 1st trade of the day into the WHITE ZONE.  Please feel free to shoot me any questions you may have.   TRADENPERFORM@GMAIL.COM

Link to full spread sheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap5hOyO4ONQLdEh4blB3aU81Smk0a1VBVFZZRnVqb2c&usp=sharing




TRADE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND BASED ON TRADING RULES AND ZONES POSTED PRIOR TO OPEN.  A TRADE IS COUNTED ONLY IF THERE WOULD BE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION THAT A LIMIT ORDER WOULD BE FILLED AT THE LIMIT.  DO NOT FOLLOW ANYONE BLINDLY. THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES S/R TRADE ZONES FOR 06-06-13

Today's trade plan is to focus on trade entry at the zones. Highest odds location is at the middle to back of the zone on first touch. I will be looking for signs of sellers over reaching in the form of tick divergence & extreme tick readings. We are down multiple days in a row so I am cautious not to get over aggressive on the down side. Markets move in two directions. Trade smart. trade location itself is an edge.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-05-2013

In tonights review lets look at a few basics I trade by:
1) Focus is in 2 areas

A) who has control-buyers or sellers. The WHITE LINE helps determine this.  Generally speaking, buyers have control above & sellers below.

If you are a very aggressive trader you can contra trade both sides of the WHITE ZONE.  If you are less aggressive you want to trade in the direction of control. 

B)  The whole zone gives on an edge in trade placement The front of the zone is the most aggressive, the back of the zone is least aggressive.  Only you can determine your risk tolerance.  Where ever I enter a trade I assume my stop will need to be behind the zone.  Therefore,  you must plan accordingly.  

I do not have a stop I recommend;  though I do recommend using a stop.  A stop has 2 meet 2 criteria, a-- it has to be one that will let me protect my account while b) giving me the best chance of staying in the trade the majority of the time.  If you can only tolerate a 2 tick stop & the instrument you trade has a 2.5 point rotation at its least volatile point, you probably have a problem. 

These are the backbones of my trading.   

Sometimes I am taking trades at the front of the zone & sometimes I am taking trades middle to back.  I always prefer middle to back if for no other reason than I can use a smaller stop.  

For tonight's review,  I would encourage you to look at the back of the zones and look at what type of stop would have kept you in the majority of the rotations back up.  I could tell you but you will learn more by measuring yourself.   Lots of trades here.  High odds trades.  

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-04-13

Tonight there will be no detailed trade review.  I have a family emergency that is demanding my attention.  Hopefully I  will be able to return to the full review soon.  So A few concepts to guide you through the chart.

WHITE ZONE-- determines who has control-buyers above & sellers below.  I tend to focus on the trade that goes with control until initial resistance or support is hit.  At that point I am will to look at both sides of the market.

First Touch.  The first touch of a zone has the highest odds of a counter rotation. Second and third touches require tick divergence or some other type of evidence that its a reasonable risk reward to take the trade. 

I generally do not trade the last hour unless i am already in a position going into the last hour. 

I focus on only the highest odds trades.  My goal is simply to show that consistent high odds trading can be accomplished.  

I hope everyone had a great day.  If you did not,  learn from your mistakes and improve tomorrow.  This can be done.  

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.