Performance update of the first high odds trade of the day since inception of blog 04/19/2013

this spread sheet features the 1st trade of the day into the WHITE ZONE.  Please feel free to shoot me any questions you may have.   TRADENPERFORM@GMAIL.COM

Link to full spread sheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap5hOyO4ONQLdEh4blB3aU81Smk0a1VBVFZZRnVqb2c&usp=sharing




TRADE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND BASED ON TRADING RULES AND ZONES POSTED PRIOR TO OPEN.  A TRADE IS COUNTED ONLY IF THERE WOULD BE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION THAT A LIMIT ORDER WOULD BE FILLED AT THE LIMIT.  DO NOT FOLLOW ANYONE BLINDLY. THIS IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES S/R TRADE ZONES FOR 06-06-13

Today's trade plan is to focus on trade entry at the zones. Highest odds location is at the middle to back of the zone on first touch. I will be looking for signs of sellers over reaching in the form of tick divergence & extreme tick readings. We are down multiple days in a row so I am cautious not to get over aggressive on the down side. Markets move in two directions. Trade smart. trade location itself is an edge.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-05-2013

In tonights review lets look at a few basics I trade by:
1) Focus is in 2 areas

A) who has control-buyers or sellers. The WHITE LINE helps determine this.  Generally speaking, buyers have control above & sellers below.

If you are a very aggressive trader you can contra trade both sides of the WHITE ZONE.  If you are less aggressive you want to trade in the direction of control. 

B)  The whole zone gives on an edge in trade placement The front of the zone is the most aggressive, the back of the zone is least aggressive.  Only you can determine your risk tolerance.  Where ever I enter a trade I assume my stop will need to be behind the zone.  Therefore,  you must plan accordingly.  

I do not have a stop I recommend;  though I do recommend using a stop.  A stop has 2 meet 2 criteria, a-- it has to be one that will let me protect my account while b) giving me the best chance of staying in the trade the majority of the time.  If you can only tolerate a 2 tick stop & the instrument you trade has a 2.5 point rotation at its least volatile point, you probably have a problem. 

These are the backbones of my trading.   

Sometimes I am taking trades at the front of the zone & sometimes I am taking trades middle to back.  I always prefer middle to back if for no other reason than I can use a smaller stop.  

For tonight's review,  I would encourage you to look at the back of the zones and look at what type of stop would have kept you in the majority of the rotations back up.  I could tell you but you will learn more by measuring yourself.   Lots of trades here.  High odds trades.  

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-04-13

Tonight there will be no detailed trade review.  I have a family emergency that is demanding my attention.  Hopefully I  will be able to return to the full review soon.  So A few concepts to guide you through the chart.

WHITE ZONE-- determines who has control-buyers above & sellers below.  I tend to focus on the trade that goes with control until initial resistance or support is hit.  At that point I am will to look at both sides of the market.

First Touch.  The first touch of a zone has the highest odds of a counter rotation. Second and third touches require tick divergence or some other type of evidence that its a reasonable risk reward to take the trade. 

I generally do not trade the last hour unless i am already in a position going into the last hour. 

I focus on only the highest odds trades.  My goal is simply to show that consistent high odds trading can be accomplished.  

I hope everyone had a great day.  If you did not,  learn from your mistakes and improve tomorrow.  This can be done.  

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06-03-2013

ES opened up at 1633.  Right into the WHITE ZONE OF 1632-1634. When we open in the WHITE ZONE it is always a challenge.  The way I handle it is to look at the prior days close.  If we closed lower prior session and we gap up into-but not above the WHITE ZONE.  I look to short the WHITE ZONE.  Had we opened above the WHITE ZONE. I would have assumed buyers are in control  and looked to get long the first touch into the WHITE ZONE.  This is not a mechanical system,  the location simply gives you an edge in placing a trade.  The middle of the WHITE ZONE provided excellent trade location & Responsive Sellers were able to push ES down to Initial Support. This, once again, easily garnered 2+ points per contract. Up to 5.5 points were available.  

When ES trades into Initial Support I expect Responsive Buyers to respond the first time & that's exactly what happened.  A long trade placed at the middle to the back of the 1628.50 to 1626.50 easily reached a 2 point target & potentially 5+ points.  Responsive sellers quickly responded and pushed back down to Initial Support again.    Responsive Buyers stepped back in once again from the back of Initial Support and  were able to push all the way up to the back of the 1632-1634 WHITE ZONE & a little above.  When I see quick moves through the WHITE ZONE it is a sign of indecision on behalf of market participants and a sign for me to back off entering new trades.  I commented on twitter that the easy money had been made.  That caution was well placed as sellers came back in and pushed back down to Initial Support.  If this sounds confusing, try trading it.  Sometimes its best just to watch.   The third time into a zone can be challenging and even though there was a rotation back up it was sloppy.  After 20 min of indecision sellers were finally able to break Initial Support & push down into Strong  Support Zone of 11619-1621.  

Strong support is just that and responsive buyers stepped in and it was the low of the day.  The push back to Initial Support occurred over lunch and was a chop fest.  Lunch is an incredibly difficult time to find consistency and this bis is all about consistency.   I want no part of chop.  After working on it for about two hours ES finally worked its way back above Initial Support & into the WHITE ZONE going into the last hour.   I warned going into the last hour the if buyers could push above and close a five minute bar above the 1632-1634 zone buyers would be in control & we would have the setting for a short squeeze.  I warn almost daily; contra trades in the final hour are dangerous.  No better example than today and Friday.  Its the trades that you don't take that can be real life savers.  

As discussed, we did experience the short squeeze and buyers pushed all the way to 1638.50 resistance point.   The trade plan pretty much nailed the highs and lows for the day.  More importantly,  focusing on shorts below the WHITE ZONE & longs above really paid dividends today. Hope everyone did well.  Look forward to doing it again tomorrow.  

Success is the result of perfection, hard work, learning from failure, loyalty, and persistence.
Colin Powell 

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

The spreadsheet below highlights the first trade of the day.  Usually this is the first touch of the WHITE ZONE.  The purpose of the spread sheet is to demonstrate that all you need is one good trade to build an account. You don't have to go through boom bust cycles.  Consistency is achievable. 

 Link to full spread sheet.   https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap5hOyO4ONQLdEh4blB3aU81Smk0a1VBVFZZRnVqb2c&usp=sharing

If you would like to learn how to trade with the consistency and accuracy of  a professional;  click on the COACHING tab at the top of the page. There is a great discount on the first 3 one to one sessions.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW FOR 05-31-2013

Friday was simply a fantastic trading day.  The morning session was full of opportunity & the close was breathtaking.  There was so much going on that I am simply going to cover the key areas in today's review.  

ES opened above the WHITE ZONE placing buyers in control.  When we open above the WHITE ZONE my least aggressive strategy calls for going long the top of the WHITE ZONE on first touch & targeting an exit at 2 points.  Its a very high odds trade & dramatically highlights that all you need to build an account is 1 high odds trade  Wash rinse repeat.  For traders who left a trailer there was a potential 6 points of profit as responsive buyers pushed ES to Initial Resistance of 1652.50-1654.550.  

I expect responsive sellers at Initial Resistance.  Once Initial Resistance zone is hit,  it is a good idea to consider closing out any remaining longs.  I tweeted that I would need supporting evidence to take any longs after we hit Initial Resistance.  For very aggressive traders, Initial Resistance is often a good location to initiate shorts as I expect a larger than normal rotation out of Initial Resistance  That is exactly what occurred as Responsive Sellers pushed ES back toward the WHITE ZONE fora potential 6+ point trades on the short side.   

Responsive buyers stepped back in again just in-front of the second test of the WHITE ZONE and pushed ES back up to INITIAL RESISTANCE & through to the back of the 1656-1658 resistance zone; where Responsive Sellers stepped in again.  The back of the zone market the high of the day.  The sellers were able to push ES back down & through Initial Resistance and we into balance/chop over NY lunch.   NY Lunch is one of the hardest times of day to be consistent in.  I generally avoid opening positions this time of day.  

My entire focus is on taking only the highest odds trades and leaving everything else alone.   I enjoy the markets by my sole purpose here is to take money out of the market.  You dont get paid more because the trade is harder.  Actually, its usually the inverse.  

After chopping in a tight range for two hours sellers finally prevailed and pushed ES down into the WHITE ZONE for the second test of the day. For those who follow my blog you know that I emphasize the the 1st test is the highest odds of providing a tradeable counter rotation & that I need supporting evidence to take the trade.  The sharp move through the WHITE ZONE on the second test is exactly why I look for additional evidence before taking a second push into a zone. in this case,  there was no meaningful rotation higher.   I noted on twitter heading towards the last hour that sellers were now in control & that contra trades are not something i am interested in in this period of the day.   Why?  because I hate getting run over, as many who tried to pick a low did.  One of the principals of my trading philosophy is that a rule that keeps me out of a losing trade is as valuable as a rule that gets me into a winning trade.  Perhaps more valuable.  

The push back up into the back of the WHITE ZONE after we closed below was a fantastic risk reward location for a push to the downside.  I noted on twitter that bonds were exploding to the upside going into the top of the hour.  I also noted that even though we were at  Initial Support I do not take contra trades last hour, low of the day, below the White Zone etc.  The trade out if Initial Support actually paid nicely but it was paramount to juggling grenades   It can be done but the misses can be painful!. To sum up the last hour, strait down.  Once we closed below the WHITE ZONE the market peeled off 17 points to the down side in an hour.  

Takeaways.  1)  LOCATION MATTERS!  2) don't get ahead of the market mentally, 1 step at a time  3)  Knowing who has control is a HUGE EDGE.   Just knowing not to take the contra trade for the average trader can save your trading account!  3)  You dont have to figure out every move, YOU ONLY NEED ONE OR TWO HIGH ODDS TRADES to build a trading career. 4) Last hour moves like today are rare.  If you made alot of money in the last hour enjoy, but don't get drunk.  the last hour is usually a no win affair for the average trader. Be grateful for the payday but don't try to reproduce it everyday, stick with the high odds play.  5) The WHITE ZONE makes trading so much easier from a mental perspective & makes shifting perspectives from long focus to short focus strait forward.  

I hope everyone crushed it.  I will have the first trade performance spread sheet since inception of the blog up today.  It is positive 51 POINTS PER CONTRACT since April 19th (date blog started)  with no one trade accounting for more than 2 points in gains & no more than 3 points in losses.  That is  what focus on high odds trades can do for a trader.  I will post shortly.  

If you would like to learn how to trade with the consistency and accuracy of  a professional click on the COACHING tab at the top of the page. There is a great discount on the first 3 one to one sessions.

Next week should be awesome   Really looking forward to it! 


We all have dreams. But in order to make dreams come into reality, it takes an awful lot of determination, dedication, self-discipline, and effort.
Jesse Owens 



Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.