ES TRADE REVIEW 06-03-2013

ES opened up at 1633.  Right into the WHITE ZONE OF 1632-1634. When we open in the WHITE ZONE it is always a challenge.  The way I handle it is to look at the prior days close.  If we closed lower prior session and we gap up into-but not above the WHITE ZONE.  I look to short the WHITE ZONE.  Had we opened above the WHITE ZONE. I would have assumed buyers are in control  and looked to get long the first touch into the WHITE ZONE.  This is not a mechanical system,  the location simply gives you an edge in placing a trade.  The middle of the WHITE ZONE provided excellent trade location & Responsive Sellers were able to push ES down to Initial Support. This, once again, easily garnered 2+ points per contract. Up to 5.5 points were available.  

When ES trades into Initial Support I expect Responsive Buyers to respond the first time & that's exactly what happened.  A long trade placed at the middle to the back of the 1628.50 to 1626.50 easily reached a 2 point target & potentially 5+ points.  Responsive sellers quickly responded and pushed back down to Initial Support again.    Responsive Buyers stepped back in once again from the back of Initial Support and  were able to push all the way up to the back of the 1632-1634 WHITE ZONE & a little above.  When I see quick moves through the WHITE ZONE it is a sign of indecision on behalf of market participants and a sign for me to back off entering new trades.  I commented on twitter that the easy money had been made.  That caution was well placed as sellers came back in and pushed back down to Initial Support.  If this sounds confusing, try trading it.  Sometimes its best just to watch.   The third time into a zone can be challenging and even though there was a rotation back up it was sloppy.  After 20 min of indecision sellers were finally able to break Initial Support & push down into Strong  Support Zone of 11619-1621.  

Strong support is just that and responsive buyers stepped in and it was the low of the day.  The push back to Initial Support occurred over lunch and was a chop fest.  Lunch is an incredibly difficult time to find consistency and this bis is all about consistency.   I want no part of chop.  After working on it for about two hours ES finally worked its way back above Initial Support & into the WHITE ZONE going into the last hour.   I warned going into the last hour the if buyers could push above and close a five minute bar above the 1632-1634 zone buyers would be in control & we would have the setting for a short squeeze.  I warn almost daily; contra trades in the final hour are dangerous.  No better example than today and Friday.  Its the trades that you don't take that can be real life savers.  

As discussed, we did experience the short squeeze and buyers pushed all the way to 1638.50 resistance point.   The trade plan pretty much nailed the highs and lows for the day.  More importantly,  focusing on shorts below the WHITE ZONE & longs above really paid dividends today. Hope everyone did well.  Look forward to doing it again tomorrow.  

Success is the result of perfection, hard work, learning from failure, loyalty, and persistence.
Colin Powell 

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

The spreadsheet below highlights the first trade of the day.  Usually this is the first touch of the WHITE ZONE.  The purpose of the spread sheet is to demonstrate that all you need is one good trade to build an account. You don't have to go through boom bust cycles.  Consistency is achievable. 

 Link to full spread sheet.   https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ap5hOyO4ONQLdEh4blB3aU81Smk0a1VBVFZZRnVqb2c&usp=sharing

If you would like to learn how to trade with the consistency and accuracy of  a professional;  click on the COACHING tab at the top of the page. There is a great discount on the first 3 one to one sessions.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW FOR 05-31-2013

Friday was simply a fantastic trading day.  The morning session was full of opportunity & the close was breathtaking.  There was so much going on that I am simply going to cover the key areas in today's review.  

ES opened above the WHITE ZONE placing buyers in control.  When we open above the WHITE ZONE my least aggressive strategy calls for going long the top of the WHITE ZONE on first touch & targeting an exit at 2 points.  Its a very high odds trade & dramatically highlights that all you need to build an account is 1 high odds trade  Wash rinse repeat.  For traders who left a trailer there was a potential 6 points of profit as responsive buyers pushed ES to Initial Resistance of 1652.50-1654.550.  

I expect responsive sellers at Initial Resistance.  Once Initial Resistance zone is hit,  it is a good idea to consider closing out any remaining longs.  I tweeted that I would need supporting evidence to take any longs after we hit Initial Resistance.  For very aggressive traders, Initial Resistance is often a good location to initiate shorts as I expect a larger than normal rotation out of Initial Resistance  That is exactly what occurred as Responsive Sellers pushed ES back toward the WHITE ZONE fora potential 6+ point trades on the short side.   

Responsive buyers stepped back in again just in-front of the second test of the WHITE ZONE and pushed ES back up to INITIAL RESISTANCE & through to the back of the 1656-1658 resistance zone; where Responsive Sellers stepped in again.  The back of the zone market the high of the day.  The sellers were able to push ES back down & through Initial Resistance and we into balance/chop over NY lunch.   NY Lunch is one of the hardest times of day to be consistent in.  I generally avoid opening positions this time of day.  

My entire focus is on taking only the highest odds trades and leaving everything else alone.   I enjoy the markets by my sole purpose here is to take money out of the market.  You dont get paid more because the trade is harder.  Actually, its usually the inverse.  

After chopping in a tight range for two hours sellers finally prevailed and pushed ES down into the WHITE ZONE for the second test of the day. For those who follow my blog you know that I emphasize the the 1st test is the highest odds of providing a tradeable counter rotation & that I need supporting evidence to take the trade.  The sharp move through the WHITE ZONE on the second test is exactly why I look for additional evidence before taking a second push into a zone. in this case,  there was no meaningful rotation higher.   I noted on twitter heading towards the last hour that sellers were now in control & that contra trades are not something i am interested in in this period of the day.   Why?  because I hate getting run over, as many who tried to pick a low did.  One of the principals of my trading philosophy is that a rule that keeps me out of a losing trade is as valuable as a rule that gets me into a winning trade.  Perhaps more valuable.  

The push back up into the back of the WHITE ZONE after we closed below was a fantastic risk reward location for a push to the downside.  I noted on twitter that bonds were exploding to the upside going into the top of the hour.  I also noted that even though we were at  Initial Support I do not take contra trades last hour, low of the day, below the White Zone etc.  The trade out if Initial Support actually paid nicely but it was paramount to juggling grenades   It can be done but the misses can be painful!. To sum up the last hour, strait down.  Once we closed below the WHITE ZONE the market peeled off 17 points to the down side in an hour.  

Takeaways.  1)  LOCATION MATTERS!  2) don't get ahead of the market mentally, 1 step at a time  3)  Knowing who has control is a HUGE EDGE.   Just knowing not to take the contra trade for the average trader can save your trading account!  3)  You dont have to figure out every move, YOU ONLY NEED ONE OR TWO HIGH ODDS TRADES to build a trading career. 4) Last hour moves like today are rare.  If you made alot of money in the last hour enjoy, but don't get drunk.  the last hour is usually a no win affair for the average trader. Be grateful for the payday but don't try to reproduce it everyday, stick with the high odds play.  5) The WHITE ZONE makes trading so much easier from a mental perspective & makes shifting perspectives from long focus to short focus strait forward.  

I hope everyone crushed it.  I will have the first trade performance spread sheet since inception of the blog up today.  It is positive 51 POINTS PER CONTRACT since April 19th (date blog started)  with no one trade accounting for more than 2 points in gains & no more than 3 points in losses.  That is  what focus on high odds trades can do for a trader.  I will post shortly.  

If you would like to learn how to trade with the consistency and accuracy of  a professional click on the COACHING tab at the top of the page. There is a great discount on the first 3 one to one sessions.

Next week should be awesome   Really looking forward to it! 


We all have dreams. But in order to make dreams come into reality, it takes an awful lot of determination, dedication, self-discipline, and effort.
Jesse Owens 



Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE PLAN FOR 05-31-2013

NOTE: Interested in learning how to become a consistently profitable trader?  I have an introduction to one to one coaching package that offers 3 one hour sessions for only $200.(NORMALLY $125/HR)  Its a great deal.  You can contact me at TRADENPERFORM@GMAIL.COM to set up a 15 min chat on skype to see if we match. The TESTIMONIALS tab is at the top of the page. 

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW FOR 05-30-2013

ES had another fantastic trading range today & provided  excellent trade opportunities. The trade plan:  Today the plan calls to focus on the middle to back of the trade zones on first touch. When below the WHITE ZONE the focus is on the short side & when above the focus is on the long side. The plan is what guides me through the day & essentially sets up the highest odds trades.  That being said, price action plays a large role in fine tuning an entry or exit.  

1) ES opened at 1648, below the WHITE ZONE  OF 1650-1652.  My trade plan calls for a contra trade the first move up into the WHITE ZONE when opening below & 1650 offered excellent trade location & a potential 3 point rotation lower.  My trade model is predicated on the idea of taking two point profits & this was easily achieved.  Remember,  this is a business & all you need to build this business is one good trade.  

2) 1646-1648 was PRE-MARKET SUPPORT & responsive buys came into the market and drove ES through the WHITE ZONE & to the back of the 1654-1656.50  Resistance Zone.  The second time into any zone carries lower odds for a counter rotation & is the reason why I caution that second touch is a more advanced trade. In addition, buyers were now in control meaning that long trades on pullbacks now had the edge in term of probability.  The back of the 1654-1656 support zone (prior resistance becomes support once broken) provided good trade location and offered an easy 2 point scale/ target with a potential for a 6.5 point trade with the rotation up to the 1659.25-1661.25 Initial Resistance Zone.  (3)

When the market trades into Initial Resistance/Support I expect a larger contra rotation that normal & that is exactly what happened.  Unfortunately that setup came close to the last hour near the high of the day & above the 1st hour high.  My rules do not permit a short in that scenario; so I took a pass.  Those who did take the short had a nice payday.  

Again,  my focus & the focus of this blog is to highlight the highest odds trades generated by my chart. The location of the zones themselves is an edge.  It expect a pause in the market when these levels are reached.  Its not a system,  its part of a larger strategy of taking high odds trades and exiting and high probability targets.  for me its all about stacking chips day in day out.  If I can get two high odds trades a day for 2 points each I am pleased.   Wash Rinse Repeat. 

“He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.” 
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

NOTE: Interested in learning how to become a consistently profitable trader?  I have an introduction to one to one coaching package that offers 3 one hour sessions for only $200.(NORMALLY $125/HR)  Its a great deal.  You can contact me at TRADENPERFORM@GMAIL.COM to set up a 15 min chat on skype to see if we match. The TESTIMONIALS tab is at the top of the page. 

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE PLAN 05-30-2013

Today the plan calls to focus on the middle to back of the trade zones on first touch. When below the WHITE ZONE the focus is on the short side & when above the focus is on the long side.  Good luck.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 05-29-2013

1)  ES opened with sellers in control   The trade plan called for me to look for trades in the direction of control  at the middle to back of the zone on first touch.  Placing a short near 1649.50 provided excellent trade location for a possible 5 point trade.   If your familiar with my blog my highest odds trade is to target 2 points and close the trade.  I will post the up to date results of that model shortly.  Either way,  it would be hard to lose money with that trade placement with a reasonable stop. 

2) I pointed out at 9am that while buyers had control if we closed above 1649.50 on the five minute that I was expecting choppy conditions with a balanced profile. Importantly I said i was not taking trades in teh middle which at the time was the WHITE ZONE.    Just the same,  closing below the WHITE ZONE put sellers back in control and let you know to stand down from a counter trade for less aggressive traders.   When we reached 1640 I pointed out that we had an extreme in negative tick reading.  That this often indicated bottoms-at least near term are probable.  Also noted I would be looking for divergence for a possible long.  Thats exactly what we got at 10:10 central time for a beautiful rotation up to the back of the 1643.50-1645.50 S/R Zone. (3)   A potential 7.5 pt trade.   

The rotation up was capped at the first part of NY lunch & ES chopped around for 30 minutes before responsive sellers pushed down from 1645.50 down to 1640.  (4)On the second push down toward 1640 we had a positive tick divergence & a higher low.  This set us up for a strong move up and Responsive buyers pushed ES all the way up to the 1651.50-1653.560 Resistance Zone. (5)  Again,  I cautioned on twitter that we had seen a higher low and significant tick readings plus great tick divergence.  These were all clues that the low of the day was in.  This is part of the art of trading, see the clues that the game had changed.  In addition I sent a message to my coaching clients & later on twitter that I was in capital conservation mode.  That simply means I am cutting position size and only taking the best set ups.  I had a great morning and was not going to hand it back to the market.    

Buyers stayed in control the balance of the afternoon and pushes into the WHITE ZONE could be bought for rotations higher.  Only in the last 20 minutes did the rotations fail.  Again,  90% of the time I take no trades in the last hour.  Its just too hard to call on a daily basis.

On a coaching note.  Today was not easy,  the open was whippy and fast.  That is why discipline is key.  If you did not have a targeted exit you profit could have come & gone quickly.  Not having and respecting your stops could have run you over on the 2nd break of the WHITE ZONE to the down side.  Second and third touches into a zone carried greater risk.  I hammer focusing on  the highest odds trades because its critical to the learning process of a trader that you be positively reinforced with consistency in profits. If losses start to compile, there is no way to stay in a learning mode.  Its just a fight for survival.  

I hope all did well,  tomorrow is a new opportunity to repeat what you did well today and improve what was poorly executed.  Its an awesome thing that we get to start over every day. 

NOTE: Interested in learning how to become a consistently profitable trader?  I have an introduction to one to one coaching package that offers 3 one hour sessions for only $200.(NORMALLY $125/HR)  Its a great deal.  You can contact me at TRADENPERFORM@GMAIL.COM to set up a 15 min chat on skype to see if we match. The TESTIMONIALS tab is at the top of the page. 

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations  in any way.  You should not follow anyone blindly.  Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.