ES TRADE REVIEW 06-25-2013

I will be doing tonight's ES Review via video tonight as well.  I received a great deal of positive feedback.  I hope everyone did well.  I am testing different type of screen capture software,  unfortunately have not figured out how to use it yet so this will be in 3 parts tonight.  Hope everyone banked$$ today.  Links are below chart.   Remember,  all you need is one high odds trade to succeed.  Wash rinse repeat. 

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” 

― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

http://screencast.com/t/efGsfd4AZNE2

http://screencast.com/t/phQMIsCnUv

http://screencast.com/t/en6kKjnEhN


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES VIDEO TRADE REVIEW FOR 06-24-2013

Today I am trying something a bit different.  I am doing the trade review on video.  Depending on the response I may do more trade reviews in this manner.   I had to break it into 3 parts.   Would appreciate any feedback.  Links can be found below the charts.  

Video Links:  

Part 1:  http://screencast.com/t/KTYA4FMmc
Part 2: http://screencast.com/t/LOMdVPuH5To
Part 3: http://screencast.com/t/u50rsHSS

Anyone can trade like a pro.   If you would liked to be coached on how to move from churning your account or losing to making money feel free to contact me.   Good luck to all.  I hope everyone made $$ today.  

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW FOR 06-21-2013

ES opened in the 1591.75-93.75 WHITE ZONE.  The WHITE ZONE has a very special purpose as it sets up my highest odds trade and gives me an edge right off the open.  Since we opened below 1593.75 ( the top of the WHITE ZONE) the trade was to the short side.  Two points was easily attained & 4 points were possible prior to the second test of the zone.  

One must understand the having a high odds trade can make or break a career. Do the math using your own trading size,  if you hit 1 trade a day for 2 points every day, how long would it take you to build your account.    The WHITE ZONE accomplishes this task for me and then some.  Remember,  you only need one good trade.

In my approach to the markets, the idea is pretty strait forward.  The 1st touch of a zone.  Each subsequent touch reduces the odds of a successful counter rotation.  That does not mean you can not get it; 2nd touches are very tradeable.  The point is however,  to focus on the highest odds trades.  Day trading is about attacking when your opponent is in the weakest condition to defend and to take what is most easily given.  Two points imho is very easily given and where I focus the majority of my trades.

Once buyers were unable to push through the WHITE ZONE,  sellers grabbed control & would probably maintain control until the market became fairly extended towards Initial Support or beyond.

Now you as a trader have 2 lines of thinking you can follow.  1) I am going to look to trade both sides meaning I am going to take longs and shorts.  This is the most aggressive stance and can burn inexperienced or inflexible traders but can be very rewarding for traders who can remain fluid. 2) Recognize that your not that fluid and decide your only going to trade in direction of control until such time as we have a major reversal at an important point like Initial support or we have a major tick divergence or, as was the case Friday we hit a tick extreme of +1000 or more.

I actually prefer trading in the direction of control.  It often gives me the least amount of stress & the quickest rewards.  If you look at each zone as it was tested for the first time while moving up from a lower zone.  Almost every touch yielded 2+ points to the short side. A close examination of the zones while we were moving lower reveals that many did not get a rotation up on first touch while the first touch of each zone on the way back up did yield a successful rotation lower.  

If you want to be a successful day trader you have to know who has control and which time is the right time to challenge that control.  You challenge when the market is stretched,  when there is tick extreme or tick divergence.  Otherwise,  just trade with control.

This whole game is a crap shoot,  you have to put the odds in your favor if your going to win.

If you would like to learn more about trading like a pro & winning consistently, you can contact me at Tradenperform@gmail.com




Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW FOR 06/20/2013

ES had a gap and go.  As I am still having a great deal of my time taken by a family members illness I am going over the major points of the day.

THE WHITE ZONE WAS 1609.50-1612.  The WHITE ZONE determines who has control; buyers above & sellers below.  The questions was not did sellers have actual control,  we had a huge gap down, there was clearly highly motivated sellers.  The question was which way to lean,  Unless buyers could push above 1612, sellers had the upper hand.   This tells you the down side rotations should be stronger than upside rotations & if your going to get long,  choose wisely and don't hang around too long.

If you will look at each zone,  the first push down into a zone provided a nice rotation up at almost every level even though sellers had control,  conversely,  pushes up were met with excellent shorting opportunities; particularly with the first touch of either side of the zone (front & back)

I pointed out that if we got tick divergence at about 9.30 am central time  that it would be a good set up.  At 940 am  ES reversed on tick divergence for a 6 point rotation higher.  Tick divergence again occurred right at the front of the 1190.50-1592.50 for a 10 point rotation up.

When the market is so stretched you have to look for opportunities for reversals.  

1601-1603 ZONE was big and when buyers were unable to push above the fate was sealed.

I pointed out that on the push up to the 1601-1603 zone I was selling in the money Binary Calls for downside exposure.  I was able to cover the calls for 5 bucks and they expired worthless.   Creativity and limiting risk is a big part of being a successful trader.  You have to look at all the ways you can ring the registrar within your frame work.

Finally I pointed out repeatedly through the coarse of the day,  can you imagine a big reversal?  The point isnt that I knew there would be a reversal.  I did not.  The point was I am open to the potability.   Mental flexibility is key.  You have to be able to imagine the possibilities and still be comfortable not knowing what will happen.

I hope that helps some traders out there.  Becoming a true pro requires a multi dimensional approach with discipline and  flexibility to see both sides of an opportunity.

Great crazy day.  So many good opportunities.  Hope everyone banked.  I know my coaching clients did well and that is very satisfying.

Goodnight.  More fun tomorrow.


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06/19/2013

ES had quite the day, & we all knew it was coming.  The highest odds trade of the day took place out of the gate.  The WHITE ZONE of 1644-1646 determines who has control.  Above buyers have control, below sellers have control.   The open was in the middle of the zone and provided excellent trade location. yielding a potential 5 point + trade.

That trade finished me for the day.   I simply do not like to get involved  in the chop action combined with the violent moves post FOMC.  The balance of the day I used binary options so i could control my losses very carefully.  

The easiest trade was to the short side,  and while it seems obvious now it was not so obvious in the early going.  Knowing the bias and control gave a two fold edge.  1) It let me know (if) I took a counter trend long in needed to be fast.  2) That the short side set up would give me bigger potential profits.  Looking at the chart you will see the back of the zones combined with a  good rotation up payed very nice dividends.

I think the biggest takeaway of the day is that the best trade may have been no trade.  Markets like this look so big.  Like so much money is there for the taking.  Its an allusion.  ES was moving in 2-4 point bursts.  Stops got run over.   I highly doubt many banked coin this afternoon that were not positioned prior to FOMC.  It was simply so hard.   If you took the highest odds trade and then went home; well done.  If you lost make notes of the errors and make it a focus to only take the highest odds trades tomorrow and every day moving forward.

Good night.  Tomorrow more fun.

Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

ES TRADE REVIEW 06/18/2013

I am going to cover some very specific points for today's review.




1) ES opened into the 1632-1634 WHITE ZONE. This generated the first long opportunity of the day. The WHITE ZONE is my highest odds trade and generated 2+ points out of the gate and established firmly that buyers are in control. This means that buyers will have the edge until we hit INITIAL RESISTANCE. I expect responsive sellers at INITIAL RESISTANCE & while that did not happen today we did have a significant pause at that zone. For less aggressive traders its always a good idea to take off a long at Initial Resistance if you had not already done so.

2) While buyers maintained control through out the day the middle to back of the zones provided excellent location for aggressive traders to take quick shorts. Every zone provided at least a 2 point rotation lower from the middle to the back of the zone. It goes without saying that you should always have a stop in place. One that is reasonable to allow the trade to succeed while still providing sufficient protection against significant damage to your trading account.

3) Take away: Some of the best trades in the market are quick ones. The WHITE ZONE requires speed and discipline If you wait to see that it is right you will miss it most days. Its an uncomfortable trade and exactly the reason that it is so successful for me.

Trend days are hard. If you do not get in early, It is often hard to find a good entry. Do not beat yourself up. While we have had several trend days lately the vast majority of days are range days with extensions.


It take s dedication and discipline just to admit that the best and easiest trades are gone for the day. Traders often feel left out or cheated. Just tell your self there is more to learn and another GOOD opportunity down the road. If you stick to your highest odds trades you will not have to trade for free tomorrow because of the loss you took on a low odds trade.


Its all about stacking chips folks.



Good to be back. I love the markets. See all of you tomorrow.

Oh, one last note. FED DAYS ARE HARD. I CUT SIZE, TAKE FEWER TRADES AND SOMETIMES DO NOTHING AT ALL. LEVELS DO NOT MATTER WHEN THE HERD IS ON A NEWS TEAR. SOMETIMES ITS BEST TO STAY AWAY. ALSO FRIDAY QUAD WITCHING WHICH COULD MAKE THURSDAY VERY HARD--MANY POSITIONS THAT EXPIRE FRIDAY WILL BE SQUARED THURSDAY. FIRST HOUR OF FRIDAY COULD ALSO PROBE MORE CHALLENGING THAN NORMAL. NOW THAT YOU KNOW, MAKE THE BEST DECISION FOR YOU.



GOOD NIGHT.


Notice: This Blog & its contents are intended to be for educational purposes only & not to be construed as trading recommendations in any way. You should not follow anyone blindly. Trading Futures & Options on Futures involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions are subject to change at any time.

QUICK NOTE

The last few weeks have been a bit difficult and required me to be away from the trade desk. I apologize for the lack of postings. They will resume tonight.