ES S/R ZONES TRADE REVIEW 04-30-2013

(1) ES opened above the 1587.50-1585 WHITE ZONE indicating buyers are in control  The market tested into the white zone off the open & triggered a buy signal.  Aggressive entry  was from the front of the zone + the highest odds entry was from the back of the zone.  While both entries rotated higher; neither achieved a 2 point rotation and I considered the trade a loser with any reasonable loss. (hypothetically calculated at 3 points)

(2) The second trade was triggered when ES traded back up into the 1587.50-1585 WHITE ZONE with only the most aggressive shorts getting filled.  The WHITE ZONE was broken to the down side control had switched to the sellers.  The trading rules for this strategy calls for passing on long set ups when sellers are in control.  the rotation down to the 1582.50-1580.50 provided the opportunity to cover for 2+ points. 

While this strategy calls for trading in the direction of control I tweeted that bears really needed to make a push here or that they would lose the advantage.  I also noted the higher low on a five minute chart and the lack of a negative tick greater than -400.  ES then rotated back up the the WHITE ZONE.  This was the second touch of the zone from below so no trade was triggered per the rules.  

(3) At 10.15 ES closed above the 1587.50 indicating buyers back in control which would trigger a long on the first test back into the zone.  ES  rotated up to the 1590.75-1592.75 which was also Initial Resistance.  I expect to find sellers at Initial Resistance. The rotation up provided a 2+ rotation for the 2nd successful trade of the day.  ES balanced in a tight range for the balance of the afternoon.  While sellers did appear at Initial Resistance a small rotation down was the best they could do.

Heading into the last hour I warned that we are trading near the highs of the day and above the 1st hour high; shorts are just a low odds opportunity.  Think about it,  what would cause the market to cascade in the last hour?  Today, nothing.  Shorts were pressed right into the 3.15 close.  I can not emphasize enough if you are a day trader that consistent high quality wins are the only way to make money.  6 out of 10, even 7 out of 10 does not cut it.  Its this lack of understanding that kills small traders.  Make sure you actually have an edge.  Consistency is achievable.  Anyone can do it with preparation.   

TODAY'S TTL TRADE TRIGGERS: 3    

WINNERS: 2,  2PTS EA PER TRADE PLAN

LOSERS: 1    3 PT LOSS ASSUMED. 

TTL GAIN/LOSS +1

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” 
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War